Canada suddenly finds itself in a toe-to-toe confrontation with the world’s mightiest nation, whose unhinged head of state is not just making economic war on this country but threatening to swallow it up.
It’s the greatest crisis in our national life since the last referendum on Quebec separation 30 years ago. Our political leaders should be preparing us to face hard times. Instead, they are showering us with presents.
Mark Carney of the Liberals and Pierre Poilievre of the Conservatives are each dangling big tax cuts in front of voters in hopes of winning their support on April 28. Mr. Carney’s would cut federal government revenues by about $6-billion a year; Mr. Poilievre’s by about twice that much when it takes full effect. Both men are also pledging to cut the GST on newly built homes below a certain price, though Mr. Carney would do it only for first-time buyers.
The result of these campaign giveaways would be to deplete the national treasury just when Canada needs the money most. It will take many billions of dollars to cushion the economy from the battering it is taking from the Trump administration. Mr. Carney is proposing $2-billion in government help for the automobile industry alone. If the economy tips into recession because of an escalating trade war, it will cost many billions more to help out unemployed workers and suffering businesses.
Then there is the cost of beefing up Canada’s defences. Even before Donald Trump’s threats, Ottawa had vowed to increase its military spending to 2 per cent of GDP. Mr. Carney says he would reach that target even faster than the previous government, adding new submarines, icebreakers and drones to the country’s armed forces while hiking the pay of military personnel. Mr. Poilievre would build a new base in Iqaluit. All of this would cost not just billions but tens of billions.
These are only the promises the two main party leaders have made so far. With four weeks to go, expect many more campaign goodies, doled out strategically to various parts of the country and segments of the electorate.
How on Earth are we to pay for all this? Neither man has been willing to say in any detail. In fact, both are at pains to avoid the subject. Everyone knows you don’t talk about cuts at election time. Mercy, no. That might spook the horses.
Instead, they would have us believe that we can keep all the generous programs we already enjoy, add a few more, beef up our defences and pay lower taxes. Yes, folks, you can have it all. Even the man you might expect to propose a few cuts to government programs, Mr. Poilievre, isn’t wielding much more than a paring knife.
He says he would protect national pharmacare, dental care and child-care programs, though he would make the latter less bureaucratic. He would leave the age for receiving federal retirement benefits at 65, as would Mr. Carney. A former prime minister, Stephen Harper, announced a plan to raise the retirement age to 67, only to have the Liberals cancel that idea when they came to power.
That made little sense given the improved health, longevity and financial status of Canadian seniors, but then, old people vote. With more and more of them around, just maintaining the status quo will cost further billions.
Both men insist the country can afford their lavish gifts. We just need to make the government run a tighter ship. Mr. Poilievre would cut foreign aid, slash “waste,” trim bureaucracy and spend less on consultants. Mr. Carney would use artificial intelligence and other new technologies to increase government efficiency. Sound familiar? Anyone who has been alive and sentient for the past generation has heard it a hundred times, including, most recently, from Mr. Trump’s resident slasher, Elon Musk.
Both the front-runners in the contest to lead our national government at this momentous point in our history are playing us for fools. They seem to think we can spend more and more, and borrow more and more, without ever paying the piper. With honeyed words, they seek to persuade us we can win this struggle against the Americans without making any sacrifices whatsoever. Instead of blood, toil, tears and sweat, they offer us good teeth, cheap drugs, tax breaks and a cozy retirement.
They are misjudging the national mood. Canadians know they are in the fight of their lives. They know there is no free lunch. They know from running their own households that you can’t keep spending more than you earn year after year after year without suffering the consequences.
They are ready for a leader who doesn’t try to bribe them with their own money but instead talks to them frankly about the fix we are in and asks them to step up and do something for their country. On the evidence of this election campaign, they are not going to get one.